Tropical development likely in Gulf later this week

More WFLA Tracking the Tropics

MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) – We continue to keep a close eye on what is happening with the disturbance that will be moving into the northern Gulf later this week. At this point, it has a low (30%) chance of developing in the next 2 days and a high (80%) chance of developing within 5 days. Development means into either a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Forecast models still show a decent amount of uncertainty when it comes to this area of low pressure. This is mainly due to the fact it is not a tropical low pressure yet. Once it gets into the water and starts to take on tropical characteristics, in theory models will be better and confidence will be higher.

Based on current thinking, the most likely situation as this low pressure moves into the Gulf and becomes at least a depression by Wednesday or Thursday. It will then either move into the north-central Gulf or hug the coastline. If it hugs the coast it will be a weaker system, but will likely bring us at least a half foot of rain. If it takes the more southerly track it could become a tropical storm Barry. Either way the low will move from east to west and by this weekend should move towards west Louisiana or east Texas.

Again, direct impacts still are a little unclear at the moment, for us along the Central Gulf Coast we will at least get some soaking/heavy rain and likely rough surf. Since this hasn’t formed yet we are likely to see more changes with this forecast so it’s important to stay up to date. Right now would be a good time to go over your tropical safety plan and kit.

As for our weather tonight and tomorrow it’s more of the same. Tonight we get a few thunderstorms at a 20% chance with lows in the upper 70s. Tomorrow it’s more high heat with upper 90s for highs. Heat index values will be in the triple digits so take precautions to beat the heat if you plan to be outside for a while. Take breaks, find shade, stay hydrated, look before you lock, and don’t forget the pets.

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