MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) - Happy Weekend Gulf Coast!
Fall officially began this evening, but it doesn't feel like it. While temperatures will continue to be above average, there will be a bit of a break from the mid-90s. In the tropics, there are no threats here, but there are a few areas of interest, a tropical depression, and a tropical storm.
If you head out this evening, pack the umbrella just in case. Overnight will bring a slim chance for a few showers, mainly near the coast with lows near 73.
Tomorrow is like today, just with a slight bump in rain coverage at 40%. The best chance for rain early will be at the coast and during the afternoon the best chance goes to the I-10 corridor and inland. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Unlike today though, by tomorrow evening we will see showers linger past sunset. This will set up a wet start to the work-week.
Turning towards the new work-week we will continue to see our highs stay in the 80s, but it will be helped by rain. Our weather will be a little unsettled from Monday into the latter half of the week. Rain coverage Monday through Wednesday will be 50 to 60% each day with highs in the middle to upper 80s.
By the end of the week, our rain chances go back to 40%, but highs will creep up to near 90 once again. If you're looking for a cool-down there might be some fall air during the first hand full of days during October.
In the tropics, there is no foreseeable threat to our stretch of the Gulf Coast. With that though, we are tracking a tropical storm, depression, and two disturbances.
Let's start with the newest named storm, Kirk. This has formed a couple hundred miles off the west coast of Africa. Kirk is not a threat to land but is forecast to move farther west and slowly strengthen. The official forecast doesn't have it reaching hurricane strength, but it is possible. Through the next 5 days, it will approach the Lesser Antilles, but past that the path Kirk will take is uncertain. Some models take it into the Caribbean, while others take it into the central Atlantic as it gets close to the Lesser Antilles. Right now, it's not a threat to land or the Gulf Coast, but we'll continue to track. You can follow the latest stats and track here: Hurricane Tracker
West of Kirk we continue to track TD 11. This formed as of the 10 PM Friday night update. It is currently east of the Lesser Antilles which includes islands such as Barbuda, Dominica, and Antigua. Even though it's a depression it is not forecast to become a tropical storm. What is forecast is for it to move west the next day or so, then fizzle out as it moves towards the Lesser Antilles. It's not a threat to land, but we will continue to track.
The closest disturbance to the United States is a low pressure near Bermuda. This a cluster of clouds that will slowly drift towards the East Coast and the Carolinas. Right now it has a medium chance (40%) of developing. Forecast models are showing this either staying a broad area of low pressure or becoming a tropical storm and moving in the general direction of the Carolinas. If it does develop, where it will eventually end up is still a question as to where it will go. There is a decent chance it goes between the Carolinas and Bermuda, out to sea, or it possibly will approach the Carolinas by late next week. This will be a slow mover so a lot can change with the thinking. It's not a threat to the US or the Carolinas at the moment, but after all the rain from Florence, it will need to be watched closely for anyone in the Carolinas.
In the north-central Atlantic, there is a tropical wave that is between the Azores and Bermuda. This has a high chance of developing, but it is no threat to the US.
The next name is Leslie. We could see that name come off the board by next week, but there's also a chance neither of the disturbances gets a name. We still have more than a month of the hurricane season left, so continue to stay up to date.
Beach Forecast: Surf around 1 ft, likely flag will be yellow, 30% Chance of showers early, 20% during afternoon.
Marine Forecast: Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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