Invest 95L with a high chance of developing; More heat and low rain chances at home

Weather

Tracking the Tropics Special

More WFLA Tracking the Tropics

MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) – Let’s start in the tropics. We continue to two different tropical disturbances. Invest 95L is still near the Bahamas this has a high chance of developing into either a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 5 days. The next name on the list in Humberto. There are still a lot of questions to be answered with this system. Most forecast models do develop this into a tropical system, but this is where agreements on models begin to go away. Yesterday it looked likely that this would be getting into the Gulf, but most models this morning are showing it going to the Florida Peninsula and staying out of the Gulf.

MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) – Let’s start in the tropics. We continue to two different tropical disturbances. The one in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of developing and at this moment, is not a threat to land.

As for the disturbance also known as Invest 95L near the Bahamas, this has a high chance of developing into either a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 5 days. The next name on the list in Humberto. There are still a lot of questions to be answered with this system. Most forecast models do develop this into a tropical system, but this is where agreements on models begin to go away. Yesterday it looked likely that this would be getting into the Gulf, but most models so far today are showing it going to the Florida Peninsula and staying out of the Gulf.

While it’s less likely it gets into the Gulf, it can’t be ruled out. If it were to do so, this will likely bring us rain by the latter half of the weekend. Due to high wind shear, significant strengthening in the Gulf is unlikely. We need to continue monitoring closely, but at the moment, it doesn’t pose a direct threat.

All areas along the east coast need to be watching this closely due to recent trends east in the models discussed before. If 95L does take this route, then our rain chances may need to be lowered this weekend into the new week due to being on the drier side of the circulation.

At home, it’s more heat and plenty of humidity. Highs today will reach the middle 90s. Stay cool today as heat index values will likely be above 100°. Rain will be hard to come by once again. Cumulus clouds will bubble up in the afternoon, but rain chances will only be 10% in the afternoon. By the evening it’s dry skies.

Tonight is clear skies and lows in the lower and middle 70s. The weather we get today will be nearly identical to what we get tomorrow.

The weekend’s forecast is highly dependent on what happens in the tropics. If Invest 95-L gets into the Gulf we’ll see more rain, but if it stays near the Florida Peninsula or stays in the Atlantic our skies will remain mostly dry. For now, we’ll go with a 30% chance Saturday and 50% chance Sunday into Monday.

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