A tropical depression very likely to form in the northern Gulf

Weather

Tracking the Tropics Special

More WFLA Tracking the Tropics

MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) – We continue to track an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf. This area of disturbed weather will likely (90% chance) form into a tropical depression. It is possible that as it sits over the warm Gulf waters, it could become a Tropical Storm. The next name on the list is Barry. The latest projections show the system forming as it drifts westward. Most models (not all) are showing it making a potential landfall in central/southeastern Louisiana late this week into the beginning of the weekend.

There is still a lot we don’t know about how strong the disturbance will become and where exactly it will go. This is because it does not have a closed circulation and at this point, the models are playing a little guessing game. Once a depression forms, we will get a better idea of where exactly it is headed and how strong it will get. Most indications are that it will become a tropical storm, but there is a SMALL chance it could become a hurricane if it moves far enough south in the Gulf giving it more time to strengthen.

What we do know is that we will likely get a lot of rainfall. Rainfall totals will be higher towards the coast and could reach half a foot. That will likely be our greatest impact from this system. We will also get rough surf and if we get a prolonged period of south winds, coastal flooding will be possible as well. As with all tropical systems, based on where the system goes we could have the potential for some weak, brief tornadoes near the coast. As the system forms in the Gulf over the next few days, we will have a better idea of the direct impacts here.

As for our weather tonight, we’ll take a 50% chance for more thunderstorms into the early evening. Later on, it’s a 20% chance with lows in the upper 70s. We’ll have times of heavy rain tomorrow as the chance for thunderstorms will be 70%. Highs will be in the middle 90s.

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