TROPICS: update

Tracking the Tropics
More WFLA Tracking the Tropics

Mobile, Ala. (WKRG) – Happy Saturday Gulf Coast!

Here is an update on the tropics.

We are watching a new potential development. Before we get into it, we must remember that there is still some uncertainty as of now just because it is still far out. The computer models have become more in agreement; however, uncertainty tends to increase the further you go out in time. We will continue to keep you updated.

With that being said, the models are trending towards a trough of low pressure moving through Georgia and Florida early next week. This is forecasted to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico about mid-week. Since the Gulf water is so warm, a low pressure, tropical depression or tropical storm could develop in the northern Gulf and move westward by the end of the week, as shown in the image above. It is projected to move to SE Louisiana by late Friday or Saturday. The National Hurricane center has determined that the chance of development in 48 hours is near 30% and near 80% (high) in 5 days. As of now, the greatest threat is rain (5-7 in) as we are forecasted to be on the wet side of the storm. We will keep you updated!

This is one possibility of a forecast with this system. Confidence is growing.

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