TRACKING THE TROPICS: Gulf disturbance likely to become a depression, will bring weekend rain

Tracking the Tropics

Mobile, Ala. (WKRG) – The tropics have really heated up this week!

First, we are watching a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. At this point, a tropical depression is likely to form in the next 5 days. NHC gives it a high 90% chance of development in the next 5 days and a 70% chance of development in the next two days. While the exact track is still very uncertain with this system, no matter where it ends up, it will bring tons of tropical moisture to our area. This means rain chances will skyrocket Friday through your weekend with Saturday looking the most wet. Early rainfall estimates indicate 4-8 inches of rain is possible with 10 inches possible in isolated locations. We also know that the rip current risk will be HIGH by Friday, meaning stay out of that water!

Second, we have Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill. Bill will continue to trek towards the northeast and have very little if any impact to any land.

Third, the tropical wave off the coast of Africa is no longer a concern. It moved into a hostile environment with dry air and wind shear and has dissipated.

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