MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) – The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season could get off to another early start.

Forecast models have shown and continue to display an upper-level trough (low pressure) moving into the Western Atlantic through Mother’s Day weekend. This feature is forecast to cut off from the main flow and slowly meander west of Bermuda. As this system sits over a somewhat warm Atlantic, this feature could begin to take on subtropical characteristics. The American GFS model pushes this system west approaching the Southeast U.S. late next week. This feature could boost Gulf Coast moisture enough to bring in small rain chances by the end of next week.

Although there is a high degree of uncertainty in this scenario, storms forming prior to the official start of the hurricane season is not uncommon. In fact, pre-season tropical activity has become the norm in recent years. Eight out of the last nine years saw the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season form prior to June 1. This has lead to the National Hurricane Center pushing up the start date of their first tropical discussions to May 15. Although there has been some discussion about moving up the official start dat of hurricane season, for now, the first day remains June 1.