MOBLE, Ala. (WKRG) – As we get further into hurricane season, the First Alert Storm Team is tracking the tropics closely. WKRG’s Caroline Carithers looks at the latest hurricane season predictions from NOAA.
A couple of entities put out seasonal forecasts each year, and they update them as the season unfolds. Colorado State University released their predictions earlier this season forecasting 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA released an forecast in May that called for 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. However, NOAA just sent a new update forecasting 14 to 20 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. This forecast dropped the numbers in the amount of named storms and the amount of major hurricanes by one.
“Forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season,” NOAA says.
It has been a quiet season so far with only three named storms, but historically speaking, activity starts to pick up in August. The peak of our Atlantic hurricane season is climatologically September 10, so we do expect to see more named storms in the next several months. We still do have environmental conditions that are favorable for storm formation including La Nina, warm ocean temperatures, and weaker trade winds.
It is important to not let your guard down just because it has been quiet so far. Make sure your plan is still in place and your kit is ready to go. The WKRG News 5 First Alert Storm Team will continue to keep you updated.
For more info: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-still-expects-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season