UPDATE (8:30 PM): All of the level 4 out of 5 risk areas have been decreased to a level 3 out of 5 or lower, but severe storms continue to push through northern Mississippi. Only a few spotty showers have moved through the area this afternoon and evening. We are still keeping a close eye on this system, but a very low end threat is expected overnight.
The Big Picture
A significant outbreak of severe storms appears likely for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas Friday afternoon.
A level 4 out of 5 severe weather risk has been placed by the Storm Prediction Center for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas along the Mississippi. A level 3 out of 5 risk expected north east into northwest Alabama and western Tennessee.
This region will likely experience supercell thunderstorms and an overnight squall line capable of producing strong tornadoes, wind gusts over 70 mph, and golf ball-sized hail.
The cold front will begin its approach into our region Friday night and during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding our severe weather chances.
As the storms move into Southeast Mississippi and Lower Alabama, they will be moving into an unfriendlier atmospheric environment. There will be plenty of wind shear and moisture in place, but instability will be lacking and getting enough lift to initiate storms is highly in question.
If storms can hold together, then a severe weather threat will come after midnight Saturday mainly for areas west of I-65 and north of Highway 84. Damaging winds will be the main weather hazard, along with a brief tornado. We will still need to stay WEATHER AWARE due to the uncertainty in this event.