FRED’S LATEST PATH: Fred Weakening, Two More Named Storms in the Atlantic

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TROPICAL STORM FRED MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

ALERTS:

  • HIGH SURF ADVISORY for coastal Alabama communities until Tuesday Morning
  • COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY for all NW FL coastal communities through Tuesday afternoon

10:00 PM Monday 8/16/21: Tropical Storm Fred continues to weaken after making landfall this afternoon. Flooding rain will be possible as Fred continues moving north along the Alabama/Georgia Border through mid-week. Fred is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Tuesday morning.

We are also tracking Tropical Depression Grace. The storm is battering Haiti will more flooding rain. The storm poses no threat to the U.S. The official forecast calls for Grace to continue racing west towards the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually Central Mexico.

Tropical Storm Henri continue to drift southeast of Bermuda in the West-Central Atlantic. This storm will hover in this region posing no threat to the U.S.

7:00 PM Monday 8/16/21: Tropical Storm Fred continues to weaken after making landfall this afternoon. Flooding rain will be possible as Fred continues moving north along the Alabama/Georgia Border through mid-week.

We are also tracking Tropical Depression Grace. The storm is battering Haiti will more flooding rain. The storm poses no threat to the U.S. The official forecast calls for Grace to continue racing west towards the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually Central Mexico.

Tropical Storm Henri continue to drift southeast of Bermuda in the West-Central Atlantic. This storm will hover in this region posing no threat to the U.S.

4:20 PM Monday 8/16/21: Tropical Storm Fred made landfall at Cape San Blas, FL at 2:15 PM. This is west of Apalachicola and south of Panama City and Mexico Beach. The storm is forecast to weaken as it moves north along the Alabama/Georgia border. High surf and rip currents will remain a concern for the Gulf Coast overnight and Tuesday morning.

We continue to watch Tropical Depression Grace and newly formed Tropical Storm Henri. Neither system pose a threat to the Gulf Coast. See below for more details.

2:15 PM Monday 8/16/21: National Weather Service Doppler Radar has confirmed that Tropical Storm Fred has made landfall. The storm packing 65 mph winds came ashore at Cape San Blas, FL at 2:15 PM. This is west of Apalachicola and south of Panama City and Mexico Beach. Then storm will continue to move inland a begin weakening over Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.

10:00 AM Monday 8/16/21: We saw another significant shift east in the forecast track. This does decrease our NW FL counties impacts, but rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes are still a possibility. Otherwise, high surf, a high risk for rip currents, coastal flooding, and gusty winds will be seen and felt at the coastline of Alabama and NW FL. Areas west of I-65 will feel minimal impacts from Fred. As of now, all of the alerts are the same.

7:00 AM Monday 8/16/21: Again, not much change with this advisory. Landfall is still expected this afternoon or evening. Currently it is about 90 miles SSW of Apalachicola. Overall, because Fred is lopsided, most of the main impacts (rain, wind, isolated tornadoes) will be on the east side of the center of circulation. This means our NW FL counties will feel the most impacts in the News 5 area, mainly concentrated in Okaloosa County. Otherwise, high surf, a high risk for rip currents, coastal flooding, and gusty winds will be seen and felt at the coastline of Alabama and NW FL. Areas west of I-65 will feel minimal impacts from Fred. The next new track will get issued at 10 AM.

4:00 AM Monday 8/16/21: Not much change…The new track has shifted east a tad bit, leaving only the eastern sliver of Okaloosa County in the forecast cone. Landfall is still expected this evening around 7 PM. Overall, because Fred is lopsided, most of the main impacts (rain, wind, isolated tornadoes) will be on the east side of the center of circulation. This means our NW FL counties will feel the most impacts in the News 5 area, mainly concentrated in Okaloosa County. Otherwise, high surf, a high risk for rip currents, coastal flooding, and gusty winds will be seen and felt at the coastline of Alabama and NW FL. Areas west of I-65 will feel minimal impacts from Fred.

1:00 AM Sunday 8/15/21: Hurricane Hunters have found that Tropical Storm Fred is slowing down. While the storm still packs 50 mph winds, Fred’s forward movement has slowed to north-northeast at six miles per hour. This could affect the timing of the landfall Monday evening. Some minor intensification is possible Monday.

10:00 PM Sunday 8/15/21: Hurricane Hunters have found that despite being a sheared storm, Fred has strengthened. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 50 mph. Some modest strengthening is possible tonight through Monday evening as the storm approaches the Florida Panhandle. Waves will increase into Monday reaching 8-14 feet by the afternoon. Landfall is projected to occur between 5 PM and 9 PM.

We continue to watch Tropical Depression Grace and newly formed Tropical Storm Henri. Neither system pose a threat to the Gulf Coast. See below for more details.

7:00 PM Sunday 8/15/21: Fred continues to show some signs of intensification this evening. Hurricane Hunters flying through Tropical Storm Fred are finding lower atmospheric pressures. This is usually followed by an increase in wind speed. Some strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours along with a north and northwest movement. It still appears that the main impacts from the system will be felt over Okaloosa and Santa Rosa County Florida. Areas closer to Mobile Bay and west I-65 will experience very little from Fred.

4:00 PM Sunday 8/15/21: Tropical Storm Fred has become better organized Sunday afternoon with new storms forming closer to the center of circulation. The forecast path has taken another shift t the east. It is looking more and more likely that areas west of I-65 will see little from Fred. The forecast now calls for Fred to perhaps become a little stronger at landfall with winds near 60 mph. The main impacts from Fred will be felt in Northwest Florida in the form of rain and gusty winds, especially near the coast.

1:30 PM Sunday 8/15/21: Tropical Storm Fred continues to remain disorganized as it moves northwest through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Landfall is still expected to take place sometime Monday evening on the western or central Florida Panhandle. Most of the impacts will be felt west of I-65 and particularly in Northwest Florida.

10:00 AM Sunday 8/15/21: Tropical Storm Fred now has a well defined, new center of circulation. Because this new center formed east and north of the original one, the track has shifted east yet again. Landfall is now expected Monday afternoon/evening in the western Panhandle. We could still see bumps in the track as Fred continues to reorganize. The tropical alerts were also updated to reflect this change.

7:45 AM Sunday 8/15/21: The Hurricane Hunters have now found a newly formed center of circulation meaning Fred is now back to being a tropical storm. The next full update will happen at 10 AM.

4:00 AM Sunday 8/15/21 – Fred is starting to get its act together. This track has been bumped to the east to where our Mississippi counties have been taken out of the cone. Satellite imagery shows the system trying to develop a new center of circulation north of old one. If this were to fully happen, Fred would likely shift even further east. Until this low level center reforms, the path is still uncertain, but we are getting closer.

10:00 PM Saturday 8/14/21 – The Hurricane Hunters flew into Fred and found it more organized, but still lacking a defined center of circulation. NHC is forecasting Fred to regain tropical storm status by tomorrow morning. The ultimate path is still quite uncertain because it is unknown where the circulation will reform.

7:00 PM Saturday 8/14/2021 – We continue to monitor Fred. NHC has found that Fred no longer has a closed circulation and is therefore an open wave and has been downgraded to remnants. Over the next 24 hours, Fred is expected to move over the Gulf, reform its circulation and regain tropical storm status. The ultimate path is still quite uncertain because it is unknown where the circulation will reform.

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