The latest News-5/Strategy Poll shows Donald Trump maintaining a commanding lead in Alabama just two weeks before the state’s primary.
38-percent of Alabama Republicans say they’ll vote for Trump. 17-percent like Ted Cruz. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio each have 14-percent of the vote. 10-percent support Ben Carson. Seven-percent say they will vote for John Kasich.
With the exception of Cruz, who has picked up 10-points, these figures are strikingly similar to our first poll taken last August. Our pollster says that’s common
“When people chose somebody the first time, the rest of the campaign is really spent deciding if they should change their mind,” said Jon Gray of Strategy Research. “People really don’t make a choice and then think about making another choice.
Since our second presidential poll taken six weeks ago, Marco Rubio (+ 5%) and Jeb Bush (+ 4%) have picked up the most voters as seven candidates have dropped out of the race.
“As you see Christie and Fiorina leave the assembly room, you’re seeing those votes go to them,” said Gray.
Gray says to Trump’s advantage, Cruz and Carson are splitting the evangelical Christian vote. Similarly, Rubio and Bush are splitting the moderate vote. If a couple of those candidates drop-out, Gray says maverick Trump could find himself in an interesting three-way race
“And that’s the question. How long do Ben Carson and Marco Rubio stay around? Look, if they have a good showing in the south, they’re going to be here. It will propel their energy. If they don’t show up on SEC Tuesday, I think they’re out.”
Trump had a 16-point lead in Alabama in our first poll taken six months ago. He had a 19-point lead in our poll taken six weeks ago. He has a 21-point lead now.
Gray doesn’t expect Republican candidates to spend a lot of time campaigning in Alabama next week.
“There are a lot of states in the ‘SEC Primary’ and with Trump having a 21-point lead, it’s really hard to invest assets in Alabama to fight that,” Gray said.
The latest poll was conducted by phone, state wide, Monday February 15. 2,300 registered voters responded. The poll has a margin of error of two-percent.
NOW (Kasich) 7%
SINCE JANUARY 4