New projections show when COVID-19 might peak on the Gulf Coast


MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) — The Gulf Coast is about 12 days out from seeing the worst of the COVID-19 outbreak according to scientists at the University of Washington. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation says the impact and needed resources will peak in the United States on April 15. But the worst of it will hit the Gulf Coast a few days later.

According to the projections, both Alabama and Mississippi will see the worst of it on April 18. Florida’s peak will be on April 21, according to the research. Although the predictions of the number of deaths are dire, there is some good news too. All three of the states in the WKRG News 5 viewing area should have far more available hospital beds than needed on the peak dates.

The Institute predicts about 237 deaths in the state of Mississippi, more than 900 in Alabama and more than 6,700 deaths in Florida. Alabama and Florida both are projected to have more than twice the number of available beds on the peak day. Mississippi is projected to have 10 times more than needed. Only in Florida, there is a projected shortfall of about 800 intensive care unit beds.

Right now, according to the Institute, the United States is projected to see about 82,000 deaths by August 4th.

Experts warn however that if social distancing is relaxed those numbers could be far worse.

You can study all of the data by clicking on this link.


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