Huckabee Gaining On McCain In Alabama

Campaign 08 Survey Usa Click to read latest scientific News 5-Survey USA poll

by News 5-Survey USA

Published: Mon, February 04, 2008 - 8:55 am CST Last Updated: Mon, February 04, 2008 - 8:57 am CST

Geography Surveyed: Alabama
Data Collected: 02/02/2008 - 02/03/2008
Release Date: 02/04/2008 06:40 ET
Sponsor: WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola

Late Huckabee Push in Alabama Threatens McCain: 24 hours till votes are counted in the Alabama Republican Primary, John McCain and Mike Huckabee are effectively tied, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-primary tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WKRG-TV Mobile. At the wire, it's McCain 37%, Huckabee 35%, within the survey's 4 percent margin of sampling error. McCain's "lead" is not statistically significant. Either candidate may win. Mitt Romney is further back, at 19%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll release 72 hours ago, McCain is down 3, Huckabee is up 4, Romney is down 2. Among Conservatives, Huckabee leads by 7. Among Pro-Life voters, Huckabee leads by 10. Among voters under age 50, Huckabee leads by 9. But: among Moderates, McCain leads by 37 points. Among voters age 50+, McCain leads by 11. In Southern Alabama, McCain had led by 18, now by 8. In Northern AL, the two have do-si-doed, but remain effectively tied.

Filtering: 2,000 Alabama adults were interviewed 02/02/08 and 02/03/08. All interviews completed before start of Super Bowl on 02/03/08. Of the adults, 1,787 were registered to vote. Of them, 638 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be certain to vote at the precinct on Primary Day. Early voting: Mobile County and Baldwin County voters had the option, but not the obligation, to vote early, to avoid a conflict on 02/05/08 with Mardi Gras. 6% of those who participated in this survey had already voted.