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A Tale of Two Floridas

By SurveyUSA

Barack Obama leads in southeast Florida, McCain leads everywhere else. A Tale of Two Floridas

Published: Thu, September 18, 2008 - 9:58 am Last Updated: Thu, September 18, 2008 - 10:08 am

Geography Surveyed: Florida
Data Collected: 09/16/2008 - 09/17/2008
Release Date: 09/18/2008 10:25 ET
Sponsors: WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WFTX-TV Ft. Myers, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola

A Tale of 2 Floridas: Obama Leads in Southeast, McCain Leads Everywhere Else & Is 7 Ahead in Fight for 27 Electoral Votes: In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 09/18/08, seven weeks till votes are counted, the Sunshine State splits cleanly in two, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile/Pensacola, WFOR-TV Miami, and WFTX-TV Fort Myers. John McCain today carries the Northwest, Northeast, and Southwest portions of the state, and defeats Barack Obama 51% to 45%. Obama carries Southeast Florida, where Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach are located, but that is not enough to overcome McCain's margins elsewhere. McCain and Obama tie in Central Florida. The regional divides today are more pronounced in the parts of the state that border Alabama and Georgia than they were in an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6 weeks ago. Then, as now, McCain led by 6 points statewide. No dramatic movement on the surface. But underneath, this discovery: In Northwest Florida, which includes Pensacola, McCain had led by 14, now leads by 41. In Northeast Florida, which includes Jacksonville, McCain had led by 8, now leads by 46. In Southeast Florida, which includes many transplanted Northeasterners, Obama's lead has increased from 9 points 6 weeks ago to 12 points today.

McCain has gained ground among men. But, in this first SurveyUSA poll after his pick of Sarah Palin, McCain has lost ground among women. Pro-Choice voters are drifting to Obama. Pro-Life voters are drifting to McCain. Voters focused on the economy now break 5:4 for Obama. But voters focused on Terrorism break 11:1 for McCain. McCain holds 81% of the GOP base. But Obama holds just 71% of Democrats. 23% of Democrats today cross over to vote Republican. Independents split. Among white voters, McCain leads by 15 points. Among Hispanics, McCain leads by 19.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Florida adults 09/16/08 through 09/17/08. Interviews were conducted during a time of exceptional financial turbulence, coinciding with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the federal rescue of AIG insurance company, and immediately following the federal takeover of Fannie Mae. Of the registered voters, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 707 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Florida has 27 Electoral College votes. George Bush carried Florida by 5 points in 2004 and by one one hundredth of a point in 2000.