What are the Odds of T.S. Dorian Coming Here?

What are the Odds of T.S. Dorian Coming Here?

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Tropical Storm Dorian is in the eastern Atlantic, about 800 miles off the coast of Africa, or about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde island. It's no threat to any land mass in the next several days, as it continues on a west-northwest track, likely remaining as a tropical storm.

People who watch all tropical storms may ask, "What are the odds of Dorian coming here?" Assuming "here" is anywhere in the United States, the odds are low. While the odds will vary from state to state for the News 5 area, centered on Mobile Bay, the odds are less than 5% and probably less than half of that for it getting here as a hurricane. These are estimates based on how often a hurricane or tropical storm strikes our area.

When a storm is that far away, statistics are a start in determining what may happen. Computer models may look convincing but for the week and a half that it would take an average storm to travel that distance to the central Gulf Coast, models are not that accurate.

The image shows all storms in the last 100 years that have been within 50 miles of where Dorian was as of mid afternoon. While you can't use it to forecast where Dorian is going, the map clearly shows that there is no favored path and very few paths are close to each other. You can plot more historic tracks using this NOAA online tool.

Join us on News 5 for the latest forecasts and tropical tracks, daily throughout hurricane season. We'll keep you updated.

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