Normal July Humidity and Thunderstorms


Normal July Humidity and Thunderstorms

MOBILE, Alabama -

Isolated thunderstorms will mostly fade tonight but they will not totally end. Rain coverage before sunrise falls to 10% to 20%.

Tropical Depression #2 is no stronger than it was yesterday. It is still a small system heading westward. TD #2 will probably fade in the next two days, having little impact on the Caribbean. We are soon to enter the most active part of hurricane season so be sure to have a plan for the "what if".

The southeast holds onto a typical summer pattern through the weekend. Rain coverage locally each day will be between a quarter and a third of the area. Winds will be light, unless you are near a thunderstorm. Lows hold in the lower and middle 70s, while highs reach the lower 90s.

Have you ever wondered exactly what the percent rain chance or coverage is? The percent chance originally was the statistical probability for ANY measurable rain at a single point in usually a 12 hour period, whether it was for a minute or for several hours. So a 70% chance is 7 in 10. Similar to gambling odds, if the odds are 1 in 100, that would translate to 1 winner out of every hundred gamblers.

Locally, the chance of rain is pretty much the same as the rain coverage area, BUT that chance alone does NOT tell you intensity, amount, duration or lightning risk. That's why we explain in words on-air what the rain coverage or intensity is. Just looking at the number never tells the full story. It only gives a relative picture to other days.

Each day the statistical chance starts over. That's why some cities get rain on multiple days while others get none. My forecast percentage accounts for rain coverage, intensity, and how much of the day it may occur in. So, a low 30% rain chance here would mean a few spots get heavy downpours while most stay sunny. A 30% chance in Seattle might mean gray skies and light rain all day.

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