By
John Nodar
.
Published: Fri, May 23, 2008 - 1:18 am
Last Updated: Thu, July 31, 2008 - 1:06 am
What will the 2008 hurricane season bring? Folks want to know, and meteorologists based in—of all places—Colorado are trying to find answers. But, for now at least, long-term hurricane forecasting is something you should take with a grain of salt.This year, it’s a safe bet the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico) will see Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal... but what about Teddy, Vicky, or Wilfred? We spoke to some folks recently at a local shopping center about the 2008 hurricane season. They told us that—even though they’re a little skeptical—they’re still interested in what the experts say concerning the number of hurricanes and tropical storms that are likely to form this year.
The Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf experience a seasonal average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and two intense hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. This year’s forecast calls for 15 named storms, with 8 of those growing to hurricane strength, and 4 intense hurricanes. The forecast comes from the Colorado State University. Dr. William Gray has been the long-term forecast guru for the past 24 years, and this year is handing the mantle to Dr. Phillip Klotzbach. Gray says of his successor, “He’s a young fellow...I hope he can keep this going for a number of years.”
A newspaper article a few years ago that described Dr. Gray’s forecasts as “eerily accurate, on average.” It’s that on average part that gets tricky. If you stick your head in the refrigerator and your feet in the oven, on average you should be pretty comfortable. But you know better.
Gray’s 2005 prediction was way low. You may have forgotten that year’s forecast was for 13 named storms, but you probably remember the season went off the chart...ending up with a record-shattering 28 storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. 2006 and 2007 were forecast to be very active; both years were relatively quiet. That fact isn’t lost on the forecasters, but they take their lumps...and continue working toward better efforts in the future. Klotzbach says, “Obviously, the last couple of years our forecasts weren’t as good as successful as we were hoping for, so we’ve gone back and tried to improve our statistical model.” Gray adds, “Now, we didn’t do as well as we’d like for the past few years, but that doesn’t mean our forecast for a very active year coming up isn’t valid.”
When it comes right down to it, we’re grateful for people like Drs. Gray and Klotzbach. The 2008 season forecast is still a long way from being something you should rely on. But if no one attempts long-term hurricane forecasting, it will never get better.
Here’s a link to Colorado State’s Hurricane forecast team , and another to the actual hurricane season archives from the National Hurricane Center
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Bless your little heart DELMAR,did somebody come take away baby’s pacifier and make you go stand in the corner,go see mama she’ll make it better,SHHss for now, us grownups are talking,be sweet and go play.