Fay May Remain Tropical Storm

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M60o93H7pQ09L8X1t49cHY01Z5j4TT91fGfr Fay May Remain Tropical Storm
Published: Wed, August 20, 2008 - 4:02 pm
Last Updated: Thu, August 21, 2008 - 10:29 pm

Track Fay with the News 5 Storm Team



Latest National Hurricane Center Advisory



000
WTNT31 KNHC 220244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

...FAY STILL DRIFTING WESTWARD AND DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF
INDIAN PASS WESTWARD TO DESTIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES...40 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

FAY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF
FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN

NHC Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 212032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE.

SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.8W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


The cone in the Gulf is widening somewhat isn’t it? I wanted to go to the beach this weekend, to show our new exchange student our sandy white beaches. Guess we’ll stay in instead. Oh well, I guess I can curl up with a good book.

Posted by rmseek1234 on 08/21/08 - 1:52 pm • Report Abuse   

Those walking catfish save a lot of time, you don’t have to fish for them, they just walk out of the water and wait in line to be cleaned.--- We’d have to be careful if another hurricane got into the gulf while fay was around. If the two of them got together we might come up with a hemmicane and those hemies were bad.

Posted by carl on 08/21/08 - 10:03 am • Report Abuse   

Never even heard of a walking catfish before.  I would like to see a couple of those walking around....... maybe at an all you can eat catfish place.  LOL
.
Any chance of this storm crossing Florida, going into the gulf and then turning around and going back across Florida?  What would happen if another storm should start to come this way while Fay lingers around for so long?

Posted by BamaBob on 08/21/08 - 8:38 am • Report Abuse   

Carl - I do remember you sharing that story a while back when several of us were remembering those days.  The motel we were in was just across 90 and next door to a popular club at that time.  Nothing but a gray slab was left of that thing.  Not even any rubble.  Just an island of concrete amidst the sand.
.
I have a picture of me standing in front of the Bay Town Inn that was taken in March of 2005.  Had lunch at The Dock of the Bay across the street from the place and poured down a few cold beers at the Firedog Saloon later that afternoon.  Hard to believe that only a few months later the whole place would be turned upside down.  The shell of the Firedog survived, but it was gutted.  Need to take a drive over that way soon and see how much progress they have made.
.
The Firedog’s website has some pretty dramatic pictures taken right after Katrina, including some brave firemen taking away bodies tangled up in the debris.
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http://www.firedogsaloon.com/

Posted by BamaBob on 08/20/08 - 1:23 pm • Report Abuse   

A very good site BamaBob ! those before pictures look very familar to some I remember. As I said before , Me the wife and kids were down there at the beach in a motel two days before it hit and decided we better head home and tie things down. The motel was just a block out line in the sand and the pool was even to the sides with sand after camille. Hope they never have another one that strong and as big as Katrina. Now that would be a perfect storm of destruction.

Posted by carl on 08/20/08 - 1:09 pm • Report Abuse   

Will never forget Camille!  Had a hard time ever getting out of Biloxi that day, but it sure wasn’t because of a desire to surf!  I can also remember all the stories about hurricane parties in the following days. People can do the craziest things.....
.
I always loved Old Town Bay St Louis and spent a few weekends over that way at a nice turn of the century Bed & Breakfast situated on Beach Blvd overlooking the bay.  Recently I found an interesting blog describing the final moments of the B&B;’s 100 year history.  It is not about a hurricane party, but rather the complacency some had after surviving Camille (The Storm of the Century) unscathed.  Very interesting read especially in the chapter called Room Number Five.
.
http://katrinapatina.blogspot.com/2006/01/story-of-bay-town-inn.html

Posted by BamaBob on 08/20/08 - 12:41 pm • Report Abuse   

Nothing like the mother of all hurricanes is it BamaBob ? Camille, the strongest I believe ever recorded. Do you think you might have kite surfed if you had stayed during Camille? probably would have ended up in Canada if you did. grin

Posted by carl on 08/20/08 - 12:30 pm • Report Abuse   

Don’t think any of us will be getting a day off from this one.  Probably just screw up another weekend......
.
Most of them do kind of hook a right once on land, but there have been a few that have done some crazy stuff.  I think it was Elena back in 85 that was projected to come to Mobile, so we packed up and left.  It then took a hard right and started toward Florida.  We load the car to come back and here on the radio that it had taken a hard left and might be on its way to Mobile again.  We decided to wait another day before coming back to Mobile.
.
I think it finally came in somewhere around the MS/LA line.
.
I think I remember another one cross Florida into the Atlantic and then coming back across Florida into the gulf, but don’t recall the name.

Posted by BamaBob on 08/20/08 - 12:07 pm • Report Abuse   

My question has anyone else thought it strange that they have this storm hooking a left once it hit the mainland???  I have always thought storms hooked a right once they were no longer over the water, something about the counter clockwise rotation and being over land???  I have just found this projected path to be weird.  Just wondering if I was the only one???

Posted by mustuknow on 08/20/08 - 5:08 am • Report Abuse   

Correction: “That’s” not “that”

Posted by barefootangel on 08/20/08 - 3:11 am • Report Abuse   


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