Long-Range Hurricane Forecasting

Mobile Season News 5 Meteorlogist John Nodar takes a closer look at what goes into predict a forecast for the entire Hurricane Season.

by John Nodar

Published: Fri, May 23, 2008 - 1:18 am CST Last Updated: Thu, July 31, 2008 - 1:06 am CST

What will the 2008 hurricane season bring? Folks want to know, and meteorologists based in—of all places—Colorado are trying to find answers. But, for now at least, long-term hurricane forecasting is something you should take with a grain of salt.

This year, it’s a safe bet the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico) will see Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal... but what about Teddy, Vicky, or Wilfred? We spoke to some folks recently at a local shopping center about the 2008 hurricane season. They told us that—even though they’re a little skeptical—they’re still interested in what the experts say concerning the number of hurricanes and tropical storms that are likely to form this year.

The Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf experience a seasonal average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and two intense hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. This year’s forecast calls for 15 named storms, with 8 of those growing to hurricane strength, and 4 intense hurricanes. The forecast comes from the Colorado State University. Dr. William Gray has been the long-term forecast guru for the past 24 years, and this year is handing the mantle to Dr. Phillip Klotzbach. Gray says of his successor, “He’s a young fellow...I hope he can keep this going for a number of years.”

A newspaper article a few years ago that described Dr. Gray’s forecasts as “eerily accurate, on average.” It’s that on average part that gets tricky. If you stick your head in the refrigerator and your feet in the oven, on average you should be pretty comfortable. But you know better.

Gray’s 2005 prediction was way low. You may have forgotten that year’s forecast was for 13 named storms, but you probably remember the season went off the chart...ending up with a record-shattering 28 storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. 2006 and 2007 were forecast to be very active; both years were relatively quiet. That fact isn’t lost on the forecasters, but they take their lumps...and continue working toward better efforts in the future. Klotzbach says, “Obviously, the last couple of years our forecasts weren’t as good as successful as we were hoping for, so we’ve gone back and tried to improve our statistical model.” Gray adds, “Now, we didn’t do as well as we’d like for the past few years, but that doesn’t mean our forecast for a very active year coming up isn’t valid.”

When it comes right down to it, we’re grateful for people like Drs. Gray and Klotzbach. The 2008 season forecast is still a long way from being something you should rely on. But if no one attempts long-term hurricane forecasting, it will never get better.

Here’s a link to Colorado State’s Hurricane forecast team , and another to the actual hurricane season archives from the National Hurricane Center

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carl Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 10:04 am

Bless your little heart DELMAR,did somebody come take away baby’s pacifier and make you go stand in the corner,go see mama she’ll make it better,SHHss for now, us grownups are talking,be sweet and go play.

BamaBob Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 9:24 am

Delmar - Do you have anything to contribute to the dialogue? Or, is your only purpose here to show your stupidity?

These forecast have been way, way off the past few years and may very well cause undue alarm. Those of us that are home owners feel the financial impact of these forecast when we get familiar letters from our insurance providers each year. That fact is becoming the true disaster in all of this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Delmar Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 9:17 am

Okay, did you idiots miss the jist of this story. Its about the up-coming hurricane season not your insurance problems.

carl Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 8:10 am

Well I’ve had a few claims in the over 40years before Katrina. twice for lighting strikes to two large pines and a circuit board for the heating and cooling unit which was near one of the pines and for a small aluminium car port during hurricane Freddie. looking back over some of the bills for these I figure they lost 3 years of premiums and gained over forty years.Don’t you wish you could make investments like that? But they messed up and sent out the new rates before I made any claims for Katrina.I told the wife we could no longer afford these people and we better get repairs done for us and not do them our selves which I would have normally done with no expense to them.It cost them $7000 for all new shingles installed so I got a little bit back and wish I had gotten more. They still walked away with a very nice profit for them.

asda Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 7:39 am

I have been thinking the past couple of years they are taking two dice and throwing at a wall to come up with the number of storms.

BamaBob Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 7:19 am

Carl – This insurance thing is something I have been wrestling around with since I saw how so many people were treated after the recent hurricanes. I’ve never made a claim against my home owners policy, because I did not want to rock the boat and any small damage I’ve received over the years was easier to fix and less expensive than the deductible. Yet, the rates just keep going up because of our general geographic location.

Barring catastrophic damage from a fire, just what are we paying for in this area? If we were to put the insurance fees in an interest bearing account, would we not have more than enough money on hand to cover most small claims when coupled with the very high deductibles? Interesting debate and I would love to see some numbers that show what the true cost of coverage is for the average home.

carl Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 5:58 am

The insurance companies will probably have another banner year on profits after a hefty increase in premiums due to these predictions. I can’t understand what’s going on in the building supplies sector. We got some of these companies on the verge of going under, all the way from Gulf Shores thru Mobile. I have heard that Lowes and Home depot have had a 50% drop in sales. That’s really scary for the local economies. As for the insurance companies and their premiums, at this point I don’t have to worry about their rates because I DON’T GOT NONE SOMATALL! That! dose give me some worry,but after about 45 years of paying them and seeing people not having any getting bailed out by FEMA and others,i guess I’ll have to put my pride in my pocket and stick my hand out and ask for my entitlements and other freebies should a disaster strike. I guess I’m gonna have to learn to be street smart and milk the system for what it’s worth,but it’s hard to teach an old dog new tricks.

BamaBob Says:

Fri, May 23, 2008 at 4:38 am

What impact does this guy’s predictions have on insurance companies? What about building supply companies?